Stepwell Centre for Asian Futures · The Learning Community · Ahmedabad University · Data current as of 24 March 2026 (Day 25 of conflict) · Brent $103.67 · WTI $91.38
Bloomberg Terminal · JPMorgan · Rystad Energy · Kpler · Jefferies · Middle East Council on Global Affairs (Mar 2026)
Kpler · EIA · Morgan Stanley · Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas · PPAC (Mar 2026)
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) · Goldman Sachs · Morgan Stanley · Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) · 5paisa · FXStreet · Trading Economics · Reuters
| Scenario | Brent level | USD/INR yr-end | Current Account Deficit (CAD) % Gross Domestic Product (GDP) | Consumer Price Index (CPI) add | FY 26/27 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 — Quick resolution 30% | $80–85 | 91–92 | −0.6% | +20 bps | 7.0–7.2% |
| S2 — Partial blockade 45% | $95–110 | 93.50–95 | −1.2% | +50 bps | 6.5% |
| S3 — Blockade extends Q3 18% | $120+ | 95.50–97.50 | −1.9% | +80 bps | 6.0% |
| S4/S5 — Infra strikes 7% | $140+ | 97–100+ | −2.8% | +120 bps | 5.0–5.5% |
Vortexa · Kpler · Lloyd's List Intelligence · S&P Global · Windward Maritime AI · DG Shipping India (Mar 2026)
Al Jazeera · TIME · CFR · Chatham House · RAND · Crisis Group · WEF · PBS · CSIS (Mar 2026)
| Country | Role | Headline cost / impact | Net position |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | Initiator | $16.5B/12 days · $200B requested · gas $3.89/gal · shale windfall +$30–50B | Mixed |
| Iran | Defender | Gross Domestic Product (GDP) −10%+ · Khamenei killed · South Pars offline · 70% domestic gas at risk · 1,300+ killed | Catastrophic |
| Israel | Co-initiator | ~$6B war cost · Haifa refinery hit · nuclear facilities struck · regional legitimacy strained | Tactical gain |
| Qatar | Neutral · struck | Ras Laffan struck twice · fires burning · 20% global LNG offline · North Field East delayed | Catastrophic |
| Saudi Arabia | Neutral · struck | Ras Tanura + Yanbu closed · two Riyadh refineries hit · "trust in Iran shattered" | Severe |
| UAE | Neutral · struck | DXB closed 3 days · Ruwais + Habshan + Bab hit · aviation = 27% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) frozen | Severe |
| India | Non-belligerent | >₹4.3L cr import overshoot · Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) 9 days · LPG crisis · Chabahar frozen · 9M diaspora | Severe economic |
| Pakistan | Bystander | ~20 day oil reserves · fuel up 20% · B- rated · Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI) spread ~780bps · IMF at risk | Critical |
| Bangladesh | Bystander | 95% energy imported · universities closed · Qatar = 25% of power gas | Critical |
| Japan / S. Korea | Major importers | 90% crude from ME · helium depletion risk · LNG +60% · Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releasing | High impact |
| China | Major importer | Drawing commercial reserves at 1 million barrels/day (mb/d) · $100B invested in Iran at risk · allowing Iranian vessels · Oman at $167 = China panic bid for physical barrels | High exposure |
| Thailand | Oil importer | Government agencies ordered to work from home · diesel subsidies activated · Thailand Development Research Institute warns of panic if subsidies cut · oil reserves <30 days | High impact |
| Russia | Non-belligerent | Oil revenue windfall · pipeline gas to China continues · geopolitical leverage rising · arms sales opportunity | Net gain |
IMF GFSR Oct 2025 · OECD Global Debt Report 2025 · World Bank IDS 2024 · JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI) · Morgan Stanley · PineBridge (Mar 2026)
| Country | Rating | Debt/Gross Domestic Product (GDP) | USD debt % | FX cover (mths) | Oil import % Gross Domestic Product (GDP) | Conflict risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan | B- (S&P) | 74% | 62% | 1.8 | 4.1% | Critical |
| Egypt | B (Fitch) | 95% | 55% | 2.4 | 3.8% | Critical |
| Bangladesh | BB- (S&P) | 43% | 48% | 2.9 | 5.2% | Severe |
| Sri Lanka | CCC+ (S&P) | 115% | 58% | 3.2 | 4.8% | Severe |
| Kenya | B (S&P) | 68% | 51% | 3.5 | 3.2% | High |
| Nigeria | B (Moody's) | 38% | 38% | 3.8 | 1.9% | High |
| India | BBB- (S&P) | 83% | 18% | 10.2 | 4.2% | Moderate |
| Indonesia | BBB (Fitch) | 39% | 40% | 7.1 | 2.8% | Moderate |
| Turkey | B+ (S&P) | 32% | 42% | 4.2 | 3.5% | High |
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) 6th Round Remittances Survey 2024 · World Bank · Ministry of External Affairs · Reuters · The Hindu (2025–2026)
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Total remittances to India (FY 23/24) | $118.7 billion | Up from $55.6B in FY 10/11 — more than doubled in a decade |
| Remittances as % of GDP | ~3.4% | Stable at 3–3.5% since 2000 · larger than Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) |
| GCC share of total | ~37.9% (~$45B) | Down from ~47% in FY 16/17 as workers shift to Advanced Economies |
| UAE alone | 19.2% of total | Largest single Gulf source · predominantly blue-collar workers |
| Trade deficit financed by remittances | ~50% | Critical balance-of-payments buffer · counter-cyclical in nature |
| Kerala remittance share of State GDP | >36% | Among highest state-level remittance dependences in India (2021) |
| Projected total remittances by 2029 | ~$160 billion | World Bank projection — assumes no major structural disruption |
| 10–20% drop in GCC remittances = annual loss | $4.5–9 billion | Direct impact on balance of payments and household incomes in affected states |
US Energy Information Administration (EIA) · OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2025 · Visual Capitalist · Logistics Middle East · IER · Kpler (Q1 2025 data)
| Country | Pipeline | Destination | Capacity | Current status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | East-West Pipeline (Petroline) | Yanbu — Red Sea | 2.6 mb/d (max 5 mb/d) | Yanbu port struck Mar 19 |
| UAE | Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) | Fujairah — Gulf of Oman | 1.5 mb/d | Operational — limited capacity |
| Iran | Goreh–Jask Pipeline | Jask — Gulf of Oman | 300,000 barrels/day | Operational but small |
| Iraq | No sea bypass | 100% via Basra/Hormuz | None | Fully Hormuz-dependent |
| Kuwait | No sea bypass | 100% via Hormuz | None | Fully Hormuz-dependent |
| Qatar | No sea bypass | 100% via Hormuz | None | Fully Hormuz-dependent |